Welcome
Thank you for visiting my personal website, which provides an overview of my published work, current research projects, teaching, and a compilation of my episodic blogging for various politics-minded outlets. You can also find and follow my work on Google Scholar, Research Gate, and Academia.edu February 2024
Live radio isn't always a piece of cake, especially for an hour, but it was a great pleasure to take part in this conversation on France Culture to talk about Altiero Spinelli and Urusla Hirschamnn as well as their contribution to European federalism. Janou 2024 It was nice to speak with Jessie Williams of INews about the change of Prime Minister in France and the wider ramifications of President Macron's strategy. See the article with some quotes of mine here December 2023 Alongside my PhD student Lucas Miailhes I penned a piece for The Conversation (in French) on the recently-agreed EU Critical Raw Materials Act L’Europe n’a pas de temps à perdre. Selon l’Agence internationale de l’énergie, la demande mondiale de CRM devrait quadrupler d’ici 2040, sous l’effet d’une multiplication par 42 de la demande de lithium et d’une multiplication par 7 de la demande en terres rares d’ici 2050. Essentiels à la fabrication des batteries, les terres rares et le lithium sont au cœur de la mobilité et du stockage de l’énergie, ce qui rend la sécurité du CRM vitale pour atteindre les objectifs de l’UE en matière de décarbonation. November 2023 After David Cameron's crazy political comeback as Foreign Secretary I was happy to provide some commentary to this article published in the Sunday edition of the Greek broadsheet Kathimerini Delighted to see that our article with my fantastic co-author Monika Brusenbauch Meislova on bilateralism and the UK’s security cooperation with EU member states is now published in the British Journal of Politics and International Relations and it's Open Access From multilateralism to bilateralism: Making sense of the UK’s security cooperation with EU member states after 2016 AbstractThe article analyses the renewed importance of bilateralism for the UK’s engagement with individual EU member states in relation to security and defence policy. By systematically scrutinising the bilateral agreements with 18 EU countries concluded between the EU membership referendum in 2016 and the end of Boris Johnson’s premiership in 2022, we argue that the United Kingdom currently finds itself in the process of transitioning from one policy regime (multilateralism) to another (bilateralism); we try to make sense of this strategy by looking at it through the lens of four key aspects stemming from regime theory, namely (1) triggering factors; (2) institutional design and adaptation; (3) path dependency; and (4) regime sustainability. The analysis shows how the sustainability of a purely bilateral regime, with its high degree of customisation and intrinsic reliance on specific reciprocity, is precarious, albeit while leaving open the possibility to incorporate a future multilateral component. September 2023 Greatly looking forward to rpesenting work in progress at the European International Studies Association Conference in Potsdam My paper looks at "The Geopolitics of Supply Chains: The EU’s Efforts to Ensure Security of Supply and their Impact on the Liberal International Order" Abstract The surge in economic globalization after the end of the Cold War created interdependences with enormous geopolitical ramifications, notably the weaponizing of interdependence via control of economic nodes. COVID and the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has further demonstrated the importance as well as vulnerability of global supply chains. Recognizing these risks, the EU has launched a number of initiatives to prevent the weaponizing of supply chains and build resilience against interruptions and accidental chokepoints. This paper explores the EU’s attempts to ensure security of supply in three particularly vulnerable and strategic sectors since COVID and the war in Ukraine: semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and rare earths. The analysis examines the Critical Raw Materials Act, the European Chips Act, and the Pharmaceutical Strategy to assess the complex political and diplomatic trade-offs involved in what are often seen as primarily economic policies. On closer investigation, it is apparent that the EU’s moves to reduce strategic dependence is born of fear that crucial global supply chains are inherently subject to political risk, which in turn could stoke a backlash against the EU at home. Seen from the perspective of the debate over the future of the liberal international order, the EU’s new “geo-dirigisme” implies also a questioning of the EU’s place in this order. If embedded liberalism meant preserving a space for national redistributive policies, embedding security of supply means carving out a space for states to insure against the pitfalls of interdependence. Consequently, as the EU and others take measures to address security of supply without relying purely on globalized supply chains, the liberal international order faces the acid test of its coordination capacity. August 2023 Delighted to announce that ESPOL was successful in a joint Erasmus Key Action 2 project on Security and Inclusivity in Security Studies alongside a consortium of 7 partner universities led by the University of National and World Economy in Bulgaria. I have written a piece about what I call the revolutionary foundations of Brexit, which is now published in the Journal of European Integration History. This article is the fruit of a conference at Sciences Po Strasbourg in 2021. Title A Revolutionary Moment Founded on Forgetting: How Narratives of the UK’s Place in Europe and the World made Brexit PossibleAbstract This article examines Brexit from the perspective of the role played by multiple historical narratives about the UK and its place in Europe, as well as the wider world. Existing accounts associate the 2016 referendum result with the rise of populism and the spread of particular anti-EU narratives grounded in Englishness, the Anglosphere and, more problematically, nostalgia about former national glories. The analysis shows that these different historical narratives served to delegitimize European integration as inimical to UK democracy and sovereignty. Equally importantly, narratives of delegitimation in turn depended on a highly selective reading of British history and convenient acts of forgetting or misremembering the role of economic or political borders. It was precisely this combination of selective historical memory and a narrative of EU oppression that created a revolutionary moment. Brexit was thus founded on multiple acts of forgetting. Read the piece here April 2023 It was an honour (and great fun) to preside a PhD jury for the viva voce examination of Ruben David's PhD at the School of International Studies at the University of Trento (Italy). His thesis, supervised by Prof. Louisa Parks, was entitled Evolving norms in the UN Climate Regime: the EU’s and China’s contentious interpretations of the normative principles regulating equitable and fair mitigation commitments over the course of the climate negotiations (1992 – 2020) and I'm happy to say he was awarded his doctorate! I'm delighted to have been awarded funding for a PhD scholarship financed by the région Hauts-de-France (Allocation Région Recherche) on the topic: “L’influence des régions françaises sur la politique industrielle européenne : le cas du lithium”. More details of the projet and the call for applciations here February 2023 Really pleased to see this piece published in the Journal of European Integration. I compare UK and French elite management of Euroscepticism 2004-17: i call their approaches riding the tiger and taming by technocracy. It's Open Access thanks to the support of ESPOL, Université Catholique de Lille. ABSTRACTThis article provides a Weberian ideal-type framework to capture elite strategies for managing hard Euroscepticism and their consequences for EU disintegration. It does so by drawing on policy evolution theory to conceptualise two ideal types representing contrasting strategies: taming Euroscepticism by technocratic adaptation or embracing it. This framework is used to analyse empirical examples that match these two ideal-type approaches respectively: France and the UK between 2004 and 17. The use of this framework is a novel way of explaining the evolution and differences between elite French and UK responses to hard Euroscepticism by showing how and why French EU policy remained intra-paradigmatic as compared to the paradigm shift of Brexit. This approach allows for a better understanding of the process and probability of EU disintegration by linking the latter to strategic policy choices. In a UK context, it also offers a way to anticipate the signals leading to a reversal of disintegration. Andrew Glencross (2023) Riding the Eurosceptic tiger vs taming it by technocracy: the UK and France as two ideal types of how to manage hard Euroscepticism, Journal of European Integration, DOI: 10.1080/07036337.2023.2183197 October 2022 I attended a fantastic workshop at Radboud University in the Netherlands on the most unusual and intriguing topic of "derailed research". It brought together a great group of scholars to reflect on a much-under studied aspect of the research process. September 2022 It was great to speak with a panel of fellow experts on the EU's energy dilemma for Chinese radio CGTN on 23 September: Here are two links to the podcast: https://radio.cgtn.com/podcast/news/1/Panel-Europes-energy-crisis/373146 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/panel-europes-energy-crisis/id894467023?i=1000580427095 I had the privilege to deliver a guest lecture at the Dimitris-Tsatsos-Institute at the Fernuniversität Hagen. My talk was about the EU Constitution in a Time of Polycrisis: Success rather than Failure. Many thanks to Prof. Schiffauer for the kind invitation. Delighted to have been appointed external examiner for the Politics BA at University College Cork looking forward to carrying out my duties and visiting lovely Cork once again during this academic year. It was a privilege for ESPOL to host the annual UACES conference - the first since 2019 - and to moderate a wonderful plenary session featuring Profs. Amelia Hadfield, Vivien Schmidt, and Amy Verdun Another highlight of the conference was presenting a paper co-authored with Monika Bruisenbauch-Meislova entitled UK’s Bilateralism with EU27 in the Post-Brexit Era: Stock-Taking of Emerging Patterns and Trends Abstract: With the UK having lost the ‘access to many of the multiplier effects of EU membership’ (Martill and Sus 2018: 4), Brexit has renewed the importance of bilateralism for the UK’s engagement with individual EU member states (Hill 2018; Major and von Ondarza 2018; Ricketts 2018). The UK has been attempting to nurture individual bilateral relationships with EU27 member states, which is a highly demanding endeavour (O’Brennan 2019). The hitherto evidence shows that while the UK has managed to strengthen its bilateral relations with some EU member states (for instance, Belgium, Poland or Germany), it has failed to do so in the case of others (for instance, the Czech Republic or Slovakia). Building on our previous work on UK’s bilateralism (Brusenbauch Meislová 2019; Brusenbauch Meislová and Glencross forthcoming; Glencross et al. 2019), our contribution aims to provide an exhaustive, summarizing (if necessarily provisional) state-of-play overview of the UK’s bilateralism with EU27. By systematically scrutinising the current situation, we map the diversity of the UK’s approaches to reinvigoration of bilateral relations across all 27 member states and identify emerging patterns and trends. As well as providing a mapping exercise, the paper also sets out to explain the choice of enhanced bilateral ties and the differences in outcomes across countries. This is done by identifying explanatory variables and comparing post-Brexit bilateral agreements with the UK’s previous objective of a security treaty with the EU – a goal dropped by Johnson’s government. Hence this approach provides a novel theoretical framework for understanding emerging patterns in post-Brexit UK bilateralism with EU countries. The timeframe of our explorative analysis stretches from 2016 in/out referendum until the end of 2021 (i.e. one year after the end of the transition period). June 2022 I was happy to provide a few quotes for this Ukrainian news article @tweetsNV on the debate over granting EU candidate status to Ukraine Sono abilitato! Delighted to have been awarded the Abilitazione di prima fascia for Political Science by the Italian Ministry for Research as part of the Abilitazione Scientifica Nazionale competition 2021-23. This is the equivalent of the French HDR or German Habilitation. The results were announced here May 2022 This Journal of European Public Policy article was a fun one to research and write. I wanted to look at the origins of the "cakeist" attitude of the UK government when negotiating EU withdrawal and that led me to examine the free market think tank debate on how easy it would be to leave the EU. That debate emerged while the ink on the Maastricht Treaty was still not dry. A big thank you to l'Université Catholique de Lille for supporting its publication as an open access article The origins of ‘cakeism’: the British think tank debate over repatriating sovereignty and its impact on the UK’s Brexit strategy Read the article here www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13501763.2022.2072371?src= ABSTRACT This article uncovers the origins of ‘cakeism’ i.e., the notion the UK could keep certain EU benefits or not suffer costs after Brexit. The analysis demonstrates how the assumptions behind cakeism originated after 1992 in policy circles associated with the Conservative Party. They argued that a free-trade alternative to the EU was easy to put in place by simply disaggregating preferred elements of the single market from supranationalism. A Westminster-centric perspective also meant these proto-Brexiters were unable to countenance any potential domestic disruption caused by leaving the EU. During May’s Brexit negotiations, European Research Group MPs resorted to cakeist arguments that reprised the same assumptions about international trade and the unitary nature of the UK state articulated well before 2016. Cakeist ideas helped scupper May’s customs plan and paved the way for Johnson’s free trade deal, thereby demonstrating the enduring influence of the early think-tank debate on leaving the EU. Pleased to have another co-authored piece published with wonderful Masaryk University Brno colleague Monika Brusenauch Meislovà in the The Routledge Handbook of Differentiation in the European Union edited by Benjamin Leruth, Stefan Gänzle and Jarle TrondalOur chapter looks at "Differentiation and Power Asymmetry: How Brexit is Changing UK Relations with Czechia and Slovakia" and explains why the UK approach of trying to create new alliances with these two countries during the first phase of Brexit did not result in getting them to support concessions to the UK during the UK-EU negotiations. You can read the chapter here It was fun to be back in Ireland (I co-taught a course on US foreign policy at TCD in 2008) to talk at the University of Limerick about European Studies in France. Thanks to IACES (the Irish Association for Contemporary European Studies) and Prof. Joachim Fisher for the invitation to attend a great workshop and panel. April 2022 Pleased to have a new Open Access publication out in the wild in European View The EU to the rescEU? Assessing the geopolitics of the EU’s medical stockpile Abstract This article uses a geopolitical lens to assess the EU’s response to COVID-19 by exploring the Commission’s creation of an emergency medical stockpile, dubbed rescEU. The article describes the creation, financing and distribution of this stockpile, which comes under the aegis of the Civil Protection Mechanism, in its first year of operation, 2020–1. What the analysis shows is how the creation and distribution of medical assistance was justified by the need to adapt to a changing international environment, one in which Russia and China contested the EU’s solidarity, both within the EU27 and towards its neighbours. The EU has committed to investing large sums to develop pandemic resilience via stockpiling. However, what remains to be seen is how far such a policy can strengthen solidarity and counteract anti-EU narratives in the global context of the increasing strategic competition facing the EU. February 2022 A rare privilege to be invited to speak at the Royal College of Defence Studies on the invitation of Sir George Norton. I gave a talk on France's economic and defence strategy to a class studying The Global Strategic Environment January 2022 I had the pleasure of moderating a fascinating round-tablein French on Lobbying and Transparency at my home institution, l'Université Catholique de Lille with great contributions by Raphaël Kergueno, Policy officer à Transparency International EU and Lora Verheecke, Chercheuse à l’Observatoire des Multinationales Nice to re-examine some classic texts and ideas about federalism and European integration in my role as discussant for this political philosophy workshop at UC Louvain (Belgium) December 2021 My review of Michel Barnier's Brexit diary finally got published in the Political Quarterly, where they gave it a suitably cheeky franglais title: Negotiating le Brexit avec les English A real pleasure to pen something for the Washington Post's Monkey Cage blog on why Valérie Pécresse might be the real deal for #presidentielles2022 People wrote off France’s center right. But Valérie Pécresse’s presidential run may be another story. November 2021 A piece in les Echos, France's leading daily business paper, reflecting on the UK-French border control regime in light of Brexit, which includes some comments by yours truly https://lnkd.in/dg4NNbbZ October 2021 Brexit was supposed to dispense, once and for all, with the wearisome sovereignty debate that spawned the UK’s demand for dis-integration in the first place". Key quote from a blog i've done for UK in a Changing Europe to link to my BJPIR article on the topic of insights from comparative politics on post-Brexit UK-EU relations. September 2021 It was fun to provide a guest talk to students at the HAN International School of Business for a module in European Cross Cultural Management. Thanks to Dr Alexander Zwagerman for the kind invitation, which allowed me to talk about the EU and the temptation to become a civilizational state I have piece out in this month's edition of the Political Studies Association's Political Insight magazine. It's about How COVID Vaccines Exposed Post-Brexit Tensions Delighted to be starting a new job at ESPOL (European School of Political and Social Sciences) at the Catholic University of Lille. I'm the directeur adjoint chargé des affaires internationales, which is equivalent to Dean of International Affairs. So I'll be looking to expand ESPOL's international partnerships and enhance student as well as staff mobility. August 2021 It was great to present at the ECPR General Conference along with my colleague from Brno University, Dr Monika Brusenbauch Meislová. We presented a paper for the section on differentiated integration that looked at UK bilateral relations with Czechia and Slovakia in the wake of Brexit. Details of the panel can be found here https://ecpr.eu/Events/Event/PanelDetails/10678 This paper is a book chapter that forms part of the Routledge Handbook of Differentiation in the EU, edited by Ben Leruth, Stefan Gaenzle, and Jarne Trondal which will be out shortly. May 2021 I have a new article published in European Foreign Affairs Review. It's entitled The EU and the Temptation to Become a Civilizational State. it's essentially an investigation into the geopolitics of the EU's commitment to promoting a European way of life. Abstract This article argues that the desire to promote a ‘European way of life’ constitutes a defining feature of contemporary European integration. What might be misinterpreted as an inward turn is in fact part of the temptation for the EU to become a ‘civilizational state’, one promoting a distinct identity against rival value systems. The analysis highlights the significance of the EU’s ideological shift towards a civilizational narrative and explores the domestic and international factors pushing Brussels in this direction. The article also considers the practical consequences of the EU’s attempt to act as a civilizational state in its foreign relations. Here the argument proceeds on the understanding that a civilization is not an essence but a set of practices associated with political decision-making, notably over boundaries. The EU response to Russian and Chinese attempts to extend their influence in Europe during the COVID-19 pandemic is examined as a case study of how more assertive boundary-making, to solidify the EU’s civilizational claims, is likely to fuel geopolitical competition. Ultimately, the universal idea of Europe as a template for global governance was far less threatening for its systemic challengers. Hence the EU’s pandemic response is a sign of heightened civilizational rivalry. April 2021 Great to be part of a team selected by the British Academy for funding to pursue a project on Geopolitical narratives as a process of global (dis)ordering . The team includes: Dr Aurel Sari, University of Exeter, Dr Andre Barrinha, University of Bath, Dr Andrew Glencross, Aston University, Professor Holger Hestermeyer, Kings’s College London, Dr Nora Jansen, Cardiff University, Professor Ursula Ott, Nottingham Trent University, Professor Philippa Webb, King’s College London. Very pleased to write something with the excellent Monika Brusenbauch Meislová of Masaryk University in Brno on "BILATERAL RELATIONS AFTER BREXIT: THE antalyadf.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Bilateral-Relations-after-Brexit-The-Case-of-UKs-Ties-With-Czechia-and-the-Slovak-Republic.pdfCASE OF UK’S TIES WITH CZECHIA AND THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC". This blog appears on the website of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum. March 2021 My latest blog for @DCU_Brexit_Inst looks at UK-EU COVID-19 vaccine spat as a sign of inner turmoil in EU not anti-UK spite. The House of Lords' EU Committee Report, Beyond Brexit: food, environment, energy, and health cited my written evidence on the UK-EU health security after Brexit. P. 267. Kate Ling welcomed the ability for the UK to request access to the EWRS,302 as did NHS Providers.303 Dr Andrew Glencross, however, raised some concerns: “There is … no automatic access to the EWRS. Temporary access is at the discretion of the EU and pursuant to a case-by-case request by the UK. Hence the two-way sharing of epidemiological and other public health data will be much more limited, while the ability to coordinate a cross-border response in a crisis will be similarly impaired.”304 Good to see a book chapter that has been pending for a while get published. It's a contribution to Julie Smith's edited Palgrave Handbook of European Referendums. I have written a chapter on the history of those referendums Abstract This chapter locates referendums within a history of European democracy, understood in terms of Paul Nolte’s three Leitmotifs: search, fulfilment and crisis. The idea of the referendum is first presented as a search for something to complement representative democracy. The second part of the chapter explores how to fulfil direct democracy’s promise, a dilemma that revolves around considerations of how effectively referendums live up to their promise when used. Thirdly, and finally, the analysis looks at the history of the memory, or legacy, of referendums. Judging by the historical record, there is no apparent reason to abandon direct democracy for fear of its consequences: crises provoked by referendums can spur the democratic search for fulfilling the potential of citizen empowerment. read the chapter February 2021 I have been invited to take part in the British Academy virtual sandpits on the theme of Global (Dis)Order I blogged about "Johnsonomics" i.e Boris Johnson's approach to economics, especially in relation to free trade - a key platform of post-Brexit Global Britain "A year ago this month, Boris Johnson took to the stage in Greenwich to deliver a paean to free trade. His central message was that, thanks to Brexit, the UK was finally “re-emerging after decades of hibernation as a campaigner for global free trade”. Twelve months on, it is appropriate to reflect on how far this rhetoric has turned into reality or not. Of course, the intervening period has been marked by two huge trade shocks: Brexit, which could be foreseen, and the Covid-19 pandemic, which could not. In their different ways, these two events have proved the difficulties inherent in the UK’s ability to fulfil the promise of being a free trade champion." read more I have written about UK-EU vaccine nationalism for the Dublin City University Centre for Brexit Studies December 2020 I have blogged about the new UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement for The Conversation This piece was also translated into French and Spanish It was also republished by the French weekly Le Journal du Dimanche November 2020 I have published an article on the future of UK-EU relations in the British Journal of Politics and International Relations. It's Open Access so free for anyone to read “Managing differentiated disintegration: Insights from comparative federalism on post-Brexit EU–UK relations” Abstract This article applies insights from comparative federalism to analyse different models for managing future EU–UK relations. The argument is that the stability of the EU–UK relationship before as well as after Brexit is best understood by examining the presence of federal safeguards. Drawing on Kelemen, four types of safeguards are identified as the means for balancing centrifugal and centripetal forces. During the United Kingdom’s European Union membership, the strong glue provided by structural and judicial safeguards was undone by the weakness of partisan and socio-cultural ones. However, each post-Brexit scenario is characterised by weaker structural and judicial safeguards. The most stable outcome is an indeterminate Brexit that limits the incentive to politicise sovereignty and identity concerns by ending free movement of people and reducing the saliency of European Union rules. Such stability is nevertheless relative in that, from a comparative perspective, federal-type safeguards were stronger when the United Kingdom was still in the European Union. I also published an accompanying blog post on the ECPR's The Loop Blog page October 2020 A new piece for The Conversation on Why a no-deal Brexit could damage the UK's ability to cope with pandemics I've got an Open Access piece out in the latest issue of European View, the journal of the Martens Centre in Brussels, which has a number of articles focusing on COVID-19. My contribution examines The importance of health security in post-Brexit EU–UK relations Abstract: This article examines the possibilities for negotiating the UK–EU health-security relationship after 2020. Health security, in the sense of measures to prevent and mitigate health emergencies, had played a marginal role in the UK–EU negotiations, but COVID-19 has greatly amplified this policy area’s significance. At the beginning of the pandemic, Brussels introduced significant measures to promote public health sovereignty, notably joint procurement and stockpiling of personal protective equipment. The UK went against the grain by limiting its involvement in joint procurement at a time when other countries were rushing to participate. UK participation in some EU health measures is possible on existing terms, but not joint procurement. This leaves the UK facing an uncertain future because of the potential risks associated with not participating in EU programmes, notably in terms of access to personal protective equipment supplies and possible market distortion resulting from new EU policies promoting stockpiling and reshoring. The politicisation of health security thus adds another complication to the post-Brexit EU–UK relationship. June 2020 I wrote an analysis piece for The Conversation As Coronavirus lockdown eases, Boris Johnson’s UK looks more isolated than ever Key quote: After a haphazard initial response to COVID-19, the EU has announced significant legislative and financial measures to promote public health sovereignty. These notably include joint procurement of medical equipment and stockpiling of PPE. European countries – many participants in these schemes are not EU members – are thus increasingly pooling their resources, whereas the UK is opting out. March 2020 I contributed to the latest edition of the Political Studies Association's Political Insight magazine. January 2020 I wrote an opinion piece for Al Jazeera about why the UK might re-join the EU in the future. December 2019 My hot-take on the 2019 UK general election, or at least one specific aspect of it, was published in Election Analysis 2019 My piece is on Political humour and the problem of taking Boris seriously The opening paragraph reads: "When Donald Trump ran for president in 2016, his billionaire tech supporter Peter Thiel scolded the media for taking Trump’s outrageous speeches literally. Thiel’s theory was that “a lot of voters who vote for Trump take Trump seriously but not literally”. The worry for the Conservatives going in to the 2019 UK General Election was that voters would take Boris Johnson neither seriously nor literally. For Boris was essentially a comic persona before becoming Prime Minister, having used humour to distinguish himself from his political peers. Literalness is hardly his forte either – he extended the Brexit negotiating deadline despite promising to die in a ditch before doing so. Hence the challenge he faced when campaigning in the role of serious statesman was whether his carefully crafted reputation as a joker would be an electoral asset or a liability." I was quoted in this Deutsche Welle article on what Jeremy Corbyn's foreign would look like if he were elected Prime Minister. October 2019 I had the privilege of participating in a roundtable discussorganized by Oxfam and the Foreign Policy Centre on the topic of Global Britain: how can the UK best stand up for its values in a changing world? The event was chaired by the Rt Hon Andrew Mitchell MP, former Secretary of State for International Development. I published a blog on the LSE British Politics and Policy site on Renewing and Rethinking Bilateralism after Brexit Very pleased to publish an open-access article in European View which explores the reaction to Brexit in other EU countries. Abstract This article explores why there was no domino effect after Brexit and reflects on what this means for the health of European integration. It shows how the UK responded to the uncertainty surrounding the Article 50 talks by testing EU unity, prompting both sides to discuss a no-deal outcome. Evidence from Eurobarometer surveys demonstrates that attachment to the EU strengthened markedly during Brexit talks in the four countries considered most likely to flirt with leaving the EU. Hence Brexit changed the benchmarking process surrounding citizens’ evaluation of the prospects of getting a better deal outside the EU. Risk aversion thus explains the lack of a Brexit domino effect. However, the volatility of public opinion before and after the Article 50 talks, combined with the weaker increase in support over the EU as a whole, means there is no room for complacency over the future prospects of disintegration. Keywords Brexit, Article 50, EU disintegration, Domino theory, Public opinion September 2019 I was in Oslo to participate in a panel reflecting on Could the Norwegian Model Help Deliver Brexit? This event was part of the launch of the EU Differentiation, Dominance and Democracy (EU3D) research project funded by the Horizon 2020 Programme of the European Commission. July 2019 It was a great pleasure to read Ben Cobley's book The Tribe, especially as he is an old friend from Cambridge days. I wrote a review for The Political Quarterly I blogged about the Brexit strategy of Conservative Party leadership candidate Jeremy Hunt. My argument is that The whole EU renegotiation angle of the Hunt-Johnson contest is therefore phoney. Each campaign fundamentally rests on the assumption that a change of leadership will unlock a better deal. May discovered to her cost that the EU privileges the interests of Ireland and the integrity of the single market above cutting a deal on terms suitable to pass through the UK parliament. A change in prime minister will do nothing to change this equation. Also republished by Yahoo News Delighted to be involved in the launch of a report on Renewing and Rethinking Bilateralism after Brexit. This report emerged from a workshop in Brussels where staff from the Aston Centre for Europe presented research on the future of the UK’s bilateral relations after Brexit. The report itself examines the central policy challenges arising from the UK’s need to renew and rethink bilateral relations with key European countries after the UK has left the EU. The bilateral relationships selected for inclusion in this report reflect the variety of cross-cutting economic, security, and diplomatic concerns that characterize UK engagement with Europe after Brexit. UK relations with France, Germany, Spain, Turkey, and the Visegrad Four (V4; the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) are scrutinized to determine how far bilateralism is likely to address the first two policy challenges described above. The final chapter brings back in to focus the complicating factor of devolution, looking at how territorial governance arrangements elsewhere in Europe can provide lessons on conducting “paradiplomacy” with the EU. Authors: Andrew Glencross, Caroline Gray, Yaprak Gürsoy, Carolyn Rowe, Balazs Szent-Ivanyi.You can download the report here (click on the tab for 2019) https://www2.aston.ac.uk/lss/research/lss-research/aston-centre-europe/recent-publications May 2019 A new article, which I first presented at the ECPR SGEU in Paris in 2018, is now available in early view format at the European Journal of International Relations. It's entitled "Love Europe, Hate the EU: A genealogical inquiry into populists’ spatio-cultural critique of the European Union and its consequences" Abstract:This article analyses the genealogy of the expression ‘Love Europe, hate the EU’, which is taken as a spatio-cultural critique of the European Union that has important consequences for how European integration is contested. Closely associated with the Brexit movement, but also popular among other populist movements opposing the European Union, this catchphrase is analysed as the latest stage in the contestation over the political meaning of Europe. However, the article demonstrates that the desire to do away with a rules-based institutional order rests on a deliberately ahistorical reading of European inter-state relations following the rise of the sovereign state. What is overlooked is the way in which Europe was conceptualized by the end of the 18th century as a distinct political unit with its own peculiar dysfunctionality, namely, a naturally anti-hegemonic order that often resulted in violent conflict. The spatio-cultural critique of European Union institutionalization nonetheless expects that shared European interests and values can seamlessly recreate cooperation across sovereign states, an argument that culminated in the UK’s Brexit decision. Yet, as shown by the debate over the future of UK–European Union relations, this cultural and idealized understanding of Europe’s commonalities ignores the economic and political significance of borders and forgets the part played by the European Union in managing contested spaces. This emerging cleavage between institutional and cultural understandings of Europe suggests that European integration after Brexit needs to focus on demonstrating the value of institutionalized cooperation per se as much as on the cultural symbolism of supranationalism. I made a flying visit to Denver to present a paper on Can a Soft Brexit Last? The Politics and Political Economy of Limiting Differentiation with the EU at the biennial EUSA conference. Some comments of mine on the newly-launched Brexit Party were included in a couple of articles published in the Daily Express here and here I published an e-note for the US think tank the Foreign Policy Research Institute on The European legacy of The Brexit Referendum: A Positive Impact on the EU April 2019 As co-director of the Aston Centre for Europe I co-organized an event with the European Parliament Research Service at the European parliament Library in Brussels. The event brought together Aston academics, EPRS analysts, and practitioners to discuss The future EU-UK partnership. Full programme available here March 2019 To mark a tumultuous week in the House of Commons, I wrote a blog explaining the Brexit impasse and why this required a delay for The Conversation (published 14 March 2019) Pleasure to be appointed to the scientific committee of CesUE, Centro studi, formazione, communicazione e progettazione sull’Unione Europea e la global governance, affiliated with the Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa. February 2019 I blogged about a subject close to my heart: the future of the UK's relationship with the European University Institute for The Conversation This was reposted on Yahoo News I contributed to Dublin City University's Brexit Institute blog by penning a piece on "Is Global Britain a Viable Role for the UK after Brexit?" January 2019 I was quoted in a Daily Express article on the no confidence vote in the House of Commons held on 16 January. It was an honour to participate in a public seminar on the theme of Global Britain, organized by the Foreign Policy Centre, at the House of Commons on 15 January. December 2018 I published a piece with The Conversation on Theresa May's Brexit Waiting Game Key take home message is that none of this waiting has occurred by accident. The UK government, facilitated by Labour’s lack of enthusiasm for the topic, chose to make Brexit more a question of “when” than of “how” – a strategy whose limitations are becoming increasingly obvious." This blog got over 7000 words and was republished by Yahoo and the Business Standard. November 2018 i published a piece with The Conversation on the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement Key take home message is that "There are no factual surprises left with the Brexit process. What will determine the fate of the withdrawal deal is whether it can be presented successfully as politically preferable to any alternatives." Also re-published by the Business Standard October 2018 Delighted to be invited to join The UK in a Changing Europe's Brexit Policy Panel - a monthly survey of academic experts assessing where we have got to in the Brexit process, and where we are headed. I've been appointed to the evaluation panel for this year's Marie Slodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships Programme. September 2018 I am quoted in this piece on European populism in the context of Jean-Claude Juncker's State of the Union speech A new co-authored article out in this month's issue of Orbis (published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute, where I am a non-resident Senior Fellow) written with David McCourt (UC Davis). It's called'Living Up to a New Role in the World: The Challenges of "Global Britain"' and is available as an Open Access publication here In Bath at UACES annual conference to present on the sustainability of a soft Brexit using insights from comparative federalism. Part of a great panel organized by Benjamin Leruth (University of Canberra) under the aegis of the UACES research network on Differentiated Integration in the EU after Brexit. Delighted to have been selected as a member of the Peer Review College for the UK Research and Innovation Future Leaders Fellowship scheme, a major UK initiative. August 2018 Pleasure to be in Hamburg for the ECPR genereal conference, where I presented and served as discussant on a panel co-organized with Prof. Eva Heidbreder on Referendums in comparative perspective. It was also fun to chat with prospective authors interested in submitting manuscripts to ECPR press as part of our meet the editors initiative June 2018 I contributed some reflections on what France wants to discuss at the G7 meeting in Canada as part of a piece published in The Conversation I have a piece out in The Political Quarterly on why Brexit is so different from UK attempts to obtain special status as a member state https://rdcu.be/Uj6K ABSTRACTBritish political debate since the EU referendum has hinged on what type of Brexit to pursue: hard or soft. Yet, unlike in instances of treaty rejection, the EU made no counter offer to avoid a breakdown in relations that would follow the hardest of exits. This remarkable unity in not discounting the possibility of a hard Brexit demonstrates that UK withdrawal is very distinct from previous wrangles over EU reform. Drawing on the work of Kissinger, this article argues Brexit is a revolutionary act that denies the legitimacy of the EU order. Hence this process does not conform to other episodes of differentiation. When Westminster sought opt‐outs, it did not reject the core principles of integration. By not seeking to oppose a hard Brexit, Brussels has forced the UK government to find a new legitimising principle to govern EU–UK relations, transferring the burden of adjustment to London. May 2018 I took part in a roundtable discussion on Franco-German views on Brexit, which was hosted by Policy Network in cooperation with the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. A nice review in International Affairs of the Brexit and Beyond book, edited by Ben Martill and Uta Staiger and to which I contributed a chapter, penned by the doyen of British constitutional studies Vernon Bogdanor March 2018 I wrote a piece for The Conversation parsing the details of the transition period agreed by the UK and EU for a 21-month period after Brexit. http://theconversation.com/brexit-transition-deal-conceding-on-the-possible-in-hope-of-the-hypothetical-93673I My Palgrave Pivot book on the UK Brexit referendum was cited in the leader comment of the Scotsman on 3 March when discussing Theresa May's Mansion House Speech February 2018 I have an article out in French Politics: Post-democracy and institutionalized austerity in France: budgetary politics during François Hollande’s presidency It's an open access text so the full piece is available to download for free. Abstract This paper applies the concept of post-democracy coined by Crouch to shed light on the emerging political dynamics of macroeconomic policy coordina- tion in the Eurozone as they applied to France during Hollande’s presidency. Firstly, the paper explains the nature of EMU reform, characterized here as post-democratic by institutional design, before analysing its impact on France’s budgetary politics. Finally, the French case involving Hollande’s balancing act between supranational rules and domestic spending preferences is used as a way to reflect on the stability of this post-democratic arrangement for rescuing the Euro. The 2017 presidential election pitting Macron against Le Pen showed that post-democracy by design is sustainable only if the supply side of politics remains supportive of EMU—a condition undermined by the institutionalization of austerity, at least in France. Keywords Post-democracy; EMU reform; French fiscal policy; Europeanization; Budgetary politics; Hollande December 2017 New co-authored article, with Emily St. Denny (Stirling University), in Journal of Contemporary European Research Remain or Leave? Reflections on the pedagogical and informative value of a Massive Open Online Course on the 2016 UK referendum on EU membership While the British electorate was asked to vote on a simple-sounding question during the UK referendum on EU membership in June 2016, the issues at play were extremely complex. In order to help potential voters make sense of the debate, the authors ran a free Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) on the referendum in the weeks leading up to the vote. The core of the MOOC featured all the common characteristics of this type of course: weekly video lectures, quizzes, question and answer sessions, forums and personal journals which participants could use to share and deliberate. This article reflects on the design and delivery of this course to assess its usefulness in an academic setting, especially when treating politically sensitive questions. In particular, we consider issues of format, participation, and interaction and also examine student outcomes as measured by a survey of users who completed the course. What this shows is that the ability of MOOCs to deliver on their initial promise as a revolutionary pedagogical tool for communicating knowledge remains somewhat limited. Nevertheless, the level of student satisfaction obtained and the desire expressed in discussion forums for more expert analysis outside conventional channels suggests there is probably a high demand for EU-related MOOCs. November 2017 I presented some work in progress at Agder University in Norway as part of a UACES-funded workshop on differentiated integration in a post-Brexit world. Learn more about this network's ongoing activities here A great privilege to have been awarded Senior Fellow status by the Higher Education Academy. Thisis in recognition of my ability to provide evidence of a sustained record of effectiveness in relation to teaching and learning, incorporating for example, the organisation, leadership and/or management of specific aspects of teaching and learning provision. September 2017 Delighted to be appointed Associate Editor at ECPR Press, the publishing house founded by the European Consortium for Political Research, which is now an imprint of Rowman & Littlefield. I blogged for The Conversation on Why Florence is the Perfect Setting for Theresa May's Brexit Speech (it was a tongue-in-cheek piece). August 2017 I blogged for The Conversation about how legitimacy is the overlooked factor in the Brexit negotiations Opening lines:Brexit is the most divisive issue in UK politics for generations. But one thing all commentators agree on is that the ongoing talks over exiting the EU are a test of bargaining power. Yet power is a function of legitimacy, as Henry Kissinger observed in A World Restored, his masterly survey of 19th century European diplomacy. The settlement that shaped European politics for the rest of the century emerged from an agreement over the legitimacy of major states’ interests, not a bargaining free-for-all determined by power politics. June 2017 I presented a co-authored paper at the Brexit in a Changing Geopolitical Context symposium June 29-30 at Liverpool John Moores University. I was part of a team from the Aston Centre for Europe (John Gaffney, Andrew Glencross, Simon Green, and Ed Turner, chaired by Nat Copsey) that gave a two-hour briefing to an invited audience followed by a Q&A on the political situations in France and in Germany (after the French elections and before the German elections) on 23 June at the Foreign and Commonwealth office in London. May 2017 A hot take on the election of France's new president and what it means for Brexit http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/05/09/what-macrons-victory-means-for-brexit/ Scott Thompson of Ontario radio station CHML hosted me for a discussion of the French presidential election results https://omny.fm/shows/scott-thompson-show/what-do-voter-turnouts-tell-us-about-the-french-el I participated in a Breakfast Business event at Birmingham City University entitled "Europe or the Open Sea - Reality or Delusion", where I spoke about the challenges of becoming "Global Britain". April 2017 A nice review of my Brexit book in Foreign Affairs by Andrew Moravcsik "this is an insightful account of the referendum and its paradoxical consequences" https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2017-04-14/why-uk-voted-brexit-david-cameron-s-great-miscalculation March 2017 My commentary on the trigering of Article 50 appeared in Brazilian newspaper Epoca Book Review: my book, Why the UK Voted for Brexit, reviewed in the LSE Review of Books Here's the punchline: Despite the pace of events, Why the UK Voted for Brexit is still a very timely book, although it is precisely the chapter dealing with our present ‘unfinished business’ that feels most likely to obsolesce ahead of its time. Its detailed and historically sensitive discussion of the referendum process will nevertheless remain an important document for those seeking to understand this momentous event, while its theoretical foray opens up comparative analyses with broader global phenomena driven by ‘Rousseau’s revenge’. Blogged: Article 50 and the 60th Anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. My first contribution to the Aston Centre for Europe blog I have an article out in the latest issue of the Political Studies Association's Political Insight magazine. Read The Contradictory Political Philosophy of Brexit Research NewsFebruary 2017
Book launch and Brexit talk at Aston University along with my colleague from Law, Dr Ryan Murphy. Event details here November 2016 New book published My Palgrave Pivot (an essay-length monograph) is now out as an e-book. It's called Why the UK Voted for Brexit: David Cameron's Great Miscalculation There's 50% off for UK customers I'll be presenting at the UACES Sudent Forum on 18 November in London. The theme of the panel is MOOCs: Digital Engagement and Public Participation. Details here I'm part of a consortium that was awarded an Erasmus+ grant, which will begin from December 2016. The project is called AwarEU - European Awareness ,ifinanced within the Call Social Inclusion through Education, Training and Youth of the Key Action 3 Initiatives for Policy Innovation of Erasmus Plus. The partnership led by CesUE (Italy) Partner institutions are: Nova Universidad de Lisboa and Ministério dos Negócios Estrangeiros – Centro de Informação e Documentação Jacques Delors (Portugal); University CEU San Pablo in Madrid (Spain); Jacques Delors Institute in Paris (France); University of Stirling (Scotland – UK). Aston University (UK) More details here October 2016 Along with Dr Emily St Denny (Public Policy Institute for Wales, University of Cardiff) i've written a paper about the Brexit MOOC I ran prior to the UK referendum on 23 June. This is being presented at a workshop on Media and New Technologies in the Brexit Referendum at Warwick University on 19 October. More details and a copy of the paper available here Paper abstract: While the British electorate was asked to vote on a simple-sounding question during the UK referendum on EU membership in June 2016, the issues at play were extremely complex. The debate spanned policy dilemmas, such as how to manage the economy or migration, as well as more abstract questions concerning sovereignty and national identity. In order to help those interested make sense of the manifold issues at play, politics staff from the University of Stirling ran a free Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) on the topic of the EU referendum in the weeks leading up to the vote. The core of the MOOC, which ran between May 17th and June 22nd, featured all the common characteristics of this type of course: weekly video lectures, quizzes, and question and answer sessions, as well as forums and personal journals which participants could use to share and reflect. In the process of organising and running the course, interesting questions were raised concerning the effectiveness of MOOCs as a pedagogical and communicative tool for counteracting the EU knowledge deficit. To date, little research has been done on the potential for this course format to improve the public’s understanding of, and engagement with, politics and policy issues. Consequently, this paper proposes some initial reflections on the opportunities and challenges presented by this MOOC for fostering broad public engagement with politics in the EU. In doing so it considers issues of format, attendance and attrition, participation and power dynamics. I've been co-opted on to the UACES Comittee. UACES is the academic association for Contemporary European Studies. It is a membership organisation for academics, students and practitioners who are interested in all aspects of Europe and the European Union. Learn more about their great work here July 2016 My article on 'The European Council and the legitimacy paradox of new intergovernmentalism' published in Journal of European Integration 38 (5): 497-509. Abstract: This paper examines the actions of the European Council during the Eurozone crisis through the lens of political constitutionalism. This analysis examines the role of political inputs in shaping the EU constitutional developments, whether supranational or intergovernmental, to demonstrate the ‘legitimacy paradox’ of new intergovernmentalism. That is, the European Council claimed the electoral legitimacy to rescue the euro, but in doing so opened up new avenues for contesting EU legitimacy, notably in relation to national budgetary decision-making. For unlike with supranational constitutional agency, the European Council has the means to politicise its actions. However, the strategy taken during the sovereign debt crisis is shown to be one of depoliticisation to prevent the domestic contestation of EMU reform. At the same time, paradoxically, the politics of macroeconomic policy has become Europeanised with the active participation of EU supranational actors. Since EMU reform is dependent on supranational enforcement of EMU rules, the new intergovernmentalism faces political contestation that previous, supranational EU constitutional development did not. It's part of a special issue, edited by Sergio Fabbrini and Uwe Puetter, on Integration without supranationalisation: the central role of the European Council in post-Lisbon EU politics June 2016 'The Great Miscalculation: David Cameron's renegotiation and the Eu referendum campaign', my first reflection piece on UK after Brexit published as part of EU Referendum Analysis 2016: Media, Voters, and the Campaign edited by Daniel Jackson, Einar Thorsen, and Dominic Wring. Full publication available free here Two of my articles on EU referendum available for free on WIlet's referendum-themed collection http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/subject/code/000101/homepage/collection_on_articles_on_the_eu.htm As part of my ESRC-funded MOOC I organized a townhall-style event at the University of Stirling featuring David Coburn MEP (UKIP), Vonnie Sandlan (NUS Scotland), and Ron Granieri (University of Pennsylvania). Details here May 2016 My Government and Opposition article on the 2005 French referendum on the EU Constitutional Treaty has been included in Cambridge University Press' Guide to the UK's EU membership referendum. Available free here With my Stirling colleague Prof. Paul Cairney I've blogged about how to make up one's mind about voting in the EU referendumWe often hear that citizens don’t have enough information to help them make a decision about the EU referendum. Yet, there is too much information. Most people don’t have the time or inclination to wade through all the campaign claims and evaluate them. Read more Blogged: The information deficit affecting the UK referendum on EU MembershipSwamped by facts, voters are still going into the EU referendum with an information deficit I'm quoted on the UK referendum's impact on EU migrants in the Slovak daily Dennik April 2016 I have been awarded a grant from the ESRC's UK in a Changing Europe Commissioning Fund to run a MOOC on the UK's referendum on EU membership. Enrolment is now open! My evidence cited in House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee Report on Implications of the referendum on EU membership for the UK's role in the world Read my evidence here My latest blog for The Conversation is a Fact Check of the British government's leaflet explaining why it is best to stay in the EU March 2016 Presentation of my paper "Post-Democracy and the Politics of Budgetary Discretion in the Eurozone" at the Edinburgh Centre for Constitutional Law I have blogged for OpenDemocracy on Who Speaks for Europe? The UK Referendum as a Pan-European Affair The Brexit debate greatly effects Europe yet commentary from EU figures and European heads of state has been surprisingly muted. Why is this so? Read more There's an interesting commentary on this piece in the Dublin Review of Books blog on the theme of Europe as a case of Us and Them February 2016 My e-note for the Foreign Policy Research Institute published: The Quiet Frenchman: Why Francois Hollande is Staying Silent on Brexit 29 January 2016 My article British euroscepticism and British exceptionalism. The forty-year « Neverendum » on the relationship with Europe now out in the latest issue of the Egmont Institute's journal Studia Diplomatica Full paper available here Research for this article was funded by a Research Incentive Grant from the Carnegie Trust Learn more about my Carnegie grant here 13 January 2016 I've blogged for The Conversation about why David Cameron is trying to make his own luck, for a change, by considering a summer 2016 referendum on EU membership. Full piece here 5 January 2016 My blog on why the UK's relationship with the EU is too complex to be settled by an in/out referendum was the second-most-viewed article on the LSE British Politics and Policy site for 2015 December 2015 My International Relations article on "From 'Doing History' to Thinking Historically: Historical Consciousness across History and International Relations" available on early view Abstract Although most attempts to foster interdisciplinary dialogue are located outside mainstream international relations (IR), this article seeks to problematize how the two dominant paradigms of IR theory, realism and liberalism, think historically. The argument proceeds by examining how the disciplines consider what historical knowledge is useful for, that is, how they think historically or are historically conscious. This constitutes a shift away from the dominant dialogue over how to ‘do history’ in IR. Historical consciousness is defined as the understanding of the temporality of historical experience or how past, present and future are thought to be connected. The analysis is set up to explore the extent to which both disciplines share a similar historical consciousness beyond merely treating history as instructive. To do so the article first examines the canon of European historiography to identify three genres of historical consciousness: history as teacher, history as narrative, history as representation. This survey of pre-positivist historiography serves to show the complexity of historical reflection within that discipline, something against which variance within IR theory can also be compared. Disciplinary comparison reveals that three genres of historical consciousness are present in liberalism and realism: lessons of history, revenge of history, and among progressive realists a speculative escape from history genre. Whereas the former spans both ‘isms’ in IR, realism is shown to have a more complex understanding of temporality, thereby providing another conceptual starting point for distinguishing between these two ‘traditions’. Moreover, these differences between genres of historical consciousness used within realism capture the split between realists that lies not in the origin of anarchy itself but in how realists think historically. What emerges, therefore, by comparing how disciplines think historically rather than ‘do’ history, is the equally purposive or even political use of the historical knowledge they produce. New blog on Why Brexit would make Scotland more dependent on Westminster, published by ESRC-funded European Futures It is based on written evidence submitted to the Scottish Parliament's inquiry into EU reform and the EU referendum. Full version available online My article, "Going it Alone? The Choice of Political Union in British Politics", published in The Political Quarterly. Abstract This article explores the inter-related debates over Britain's relationship with the EU and that over the future of the UK. It argues that euroscepticism and Scottish independence are based on exceptionalist identities that now revolve around economic policy. Elite euroscepticism cleaves to a neoliberal vision of minimalist regulation, while advocates of Scottish independence claim Westminster's austerity policies make the British Union incompatible with social democracy. However, this presentation of the choice facing British voters ignores the serious contradictions that overhauling the current order entails. Both forms of exceptionalism fail to recognize the significant limitations of self-government outside and within the EU. If Conservatives can contain their neoliberal flirtation with EU withdrawal they are very well placed to prosper electorally. The dilemma of which union(s) to choose might thus constitute the prelude to the entrenchment of the economic and political order that gave rise to such contestation in the first place. My International Affairs article included in House of Commons Library Reading List on the UK and EU. My work cited in House of Commons Library Briefing Report on the 1974-75 EEC Renegotiation and Referendum. Report available here Two of my FPRI essays included in Best of FPRI's Essays on America and the West, available as a free e-book. Other contributions include works by John Lewis Gaddis, Walter McDougall, and Jeremy Black. I argue in CityAm that David Cameron is not mismanaging the EU referendum because This all assumes that renegotiation should be a smooth, trouble-free process. But David Cameron’s referendum pledge made him a hostage to fortune. Eurosceptic Tories have clamoured for a referendum since the 1992 Maastricht Treaty, on the basis of fundamental opposition to what the EU stands for. They reject the constraints on parliamentary sovereignty that are necessary in order to establish common rules for free movement of goods, people, capital, and services. But EU leaders are not going to compromise on these founding principles just to forestall a Brexit. Hence there will never be a deal on the table that could satisfy those Conservatives who have fought long and hard for the opportunity to persuade Britons to leave the EU. Dissent on the government benches and even within the Cabinet is therefore to be expected. Cameron’s gamble is whether this inherently messy business will prove a small price to pay for putting the issue to bed once and for all. My blog for The Conversation on Lessons for David Cameron from the 1975 EEC Referendum 5 June 2015 Reposted on British Influence My blog for The Conversation on How to Reform the EU? Win over Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel 27 May 2015 Reposted on British Influence My new E-note for US Think Tank FPRI on 2015 UK General Election. 'A Tale of Two Exceptionalisms: The Future of the UK and its EU Membership' Also reposted at the LSE EUROPP blog, Democratic Audit, ISN the International Relations and Security Network, and and Policy Review EU My other work for FPRI available here Flyer for my talk on "The Politics of Simple Solutions: The Flawed Logic of a Referendum on EU Membership" at the London Academy of Diplomacy, 28 April 2015. Slides for my talk available here Cited in Bloomberg Article discussing parallels between 1975 EEC referendum and today's EU referendum debate: “It will be a lot tighter than in 1975, it will really be touch and go,” said Andrew Glencross, a politics lecturer at the University of Stirling. “There’s a much more fragmented elite sphere and there’s a querulous media environment, which means that getting a message across about a successful renegotiation is going to be much, much harder.” Article available here Appointed to the Political Studies Association Chair's Commission on Adding Depth I'm delighted to join this team which is focusing on the strategic future of the PSA and how it can best promote the study of politics in a changing world. More information here Political Insight 2015 article "Looking Back to Look Forward: 40 Years of Referendum Debate in Britain" Latest article: Why a British referendum on EU memberhsip will not solve the Europe question, International Affairs, March 2015 Available here Blog piece on Why Britain's Relationship with Europe is too Complex to be Settled by a Referendum LSE Europp available here Also published online with Euractiv and Policy Review A Spanish translation available here Presentation at Vesalius College Brussels 19 February 2015 I will be giving a guest lecture on some of my latest research on the referendum debate on EU membership in the UK. Details available here Awarded Carnegie Trust Research Incentive Grant In December 2014 I was awarded a Carnegie Research Incentive Grant (the only successful applicant from the University of Stirling) on the topic of the “European Neverendum: Lessons for 2015 from the 1975 EEC Referendum”. This means I'll be working and publishing on this topic in the year ahead. Cited in Foreign and Commonwealth Office Review of the Balance of Competences, EU Enlargement Report I submitted written evidence to the FCO and had the privilege of being interviewed in person in June at their magnificent headquarters a stone's throw from 10 Downing Street. The full report is available here Latest article published: Democratic Inputs versus Output-Oriented Governance: The ECB’s Evolving Role and the New Architecture of Legitimacy in the EU Journal of International Organizations Studies 5 (2): 23-36. This article examines the relationship between European integration and democratic gover-nance during the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. It does so by analyzing the evolving policies of the European Central Bank (ECB) against the backdrop of tension between input and output legitimacy in economic and monetary union. This tension makes the ECB’s actions a test case for understanding the functioning of supranational output legitimacy in a time of economic crisis. The evidence shows that the ECB stayed focused on outputs andpursued a strategic policy to prompt governments to create new treaties providing bailouts in return for conditionality. Hence this new legal-political architecture is also analyzed but in the context of how input legitimacy is institutionalized at a time of a “constraining dissensus.” What this shows is that political constraints did not prevent the emergence of a new architecture of legitimacy, although this remains beholden to a national model of input legitimacy. The result is a disconnect between de facto Europeanization of fiscal decision making and de jure national implementation measures. Consequently, the relationship between integration and democratic governance is more complex than ever with input legitimacy likely to play a disruptive role in the future. In particular, the national debt brakes introduced via the Fiscal Compact mean that the tension between output and input legitimacy may well play out at the national level as well as EU-wide. Read full article here Forthcoming publication: ‘Why a British Referendum on EU Membership Will Not Solve the Europe Question’, International Affairs (March 2015) This article scrutinizes the merits of holding a referendum over UK membership of the EU. It queries the assumption that direct democracy can somehow resolve the longstanding Europe question in British politics. To do this, the analysis traces the existence of an exceptionalist approach to the EU within Britain, now associated with re-negotiating UK membership in the shadow of a referendum. The article argues that the prospects for a radical reconfiguration of the UK’s treaty obligations are slim, thereby increasing the risk of a vote to withdraw. Yet withdrawal would be the opposite of a simple solution to the Europe question. Political and economic interests dictate lengthy politicking over a highly complex post-Brexit settlement revisiting free movement of goods, services, capital, and people. Such negotiations undermine any mooted cathartic benefits of a popular vote, while Eurosceptics will remain dissatisfied in the event of a yes, a result likely to further destabilize the Conservative Party. Consequently, the simplicity and decisiveness that a referendum – particularly one that spurns the EU – promises is merely a mirage as relations with the EU necessarily form part of an enduring British political conversation. 28 November I'll be at the Central European University in Budapest to present a paper entitled 'The European Council: Constitutional Agency in a Moment of Crisis?' Details on the workshop here 22 October I am speaking about Small States in the Process of European Integration at a round-table event on "Portugal in the Contemporary World" at the University of Stirling. Details here |